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"If you always do what you always did, on average,
you will usually get what you always got" -- Timothy J. Clark

A process behavior chart on the number of crises between two or more states in four-year periods from 1918 (end of WWI) to 2001 is provided below.  The decline in international crises in the post Cold War was replaced by a “proliferation of conflicts based on ethnicity, nationality and religion, most of which –Al Quedda aside – do not threaten the structure of the international system.” (Marshall and Gurr, Table 7.1, p. 44).  The period from 1978-81 represents a statistical outlier that included the following conflicts: Ugandon-Tanzanian, Sino-Vietnamese, Russia-Afghan, Iran-Iraq. (Chart Interpretation rules.)

 Number of International Crises, in 4 Year Periods 

Process Behavior Chart 

Source: Peace and Conflict 2003 , Monty G. Marshall, Ted Robert Gurr, Center for International Development & Conflict Management, University of Maryland, College Park