Quality Leadership Weblog :-)

U Think? Prediction Markets

The concept of prediction markets, also known as policy analysis markets (PAM), information markets, decision markets, idea futures, event derivatives, and virtual markets, has the potential to be expanded and more commonly applied to provide feedback on people’s expectations in a wide variety of areas such as:

–In your community, will crime, education, literacy, healthcare, cost of living, tax rates, employment, volunteerism and philanthropy over the next four years… get better or worse?

–Within your company or organization, will you meet or exceed goals and objectives?

-Who will win the U.S. presidential race in 2008? Does it make a difference who wins … how will you know?

–On an international level and using the peace and freedom index (http://www.freedomhouse.org), will China and North Korea be assessed as Partially Free or Free as opposed to Not-Free by 2015?

–Will China grant Tibet autonomy by 2020?

Prediction markets will expand to allow groups to identify and define expected outcomes in any area such as those mentioned above, and then allow people to “vote” on what they think will be the likely result. The value will include heightened awareness on respective issues, increased knowledge and a better way of assessing progress and managing change.

 

“There is no substitute for knowledge.
There is no knowledge without prediction and theory.”
– W. Edwards Deming

References.

Example: StrategyPage Prediction Market
http://www.strategypage.com/prediction_market/predictions.aspx  

Wikipedia: Prediction Markets
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_markets

U.S. Department of Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). History on the experiment with The Policy Analysis Market.
http://hanson.gmu.edu/policyanalysismarket.html

 

Wanna Bet? Seventeen of the world’s most wired minds stake their names - and their cash - on the future.
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/10.05/longbets_pr.html.

Long Bets - The Arena for Accountable Predictions.
http://www.longbets.org/

 

Non-profits place a bet on prediction markets

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4c2f786e-0da7-11dd-b90a-0000779fd2ac,dwp_uuid=d8e9ac2a-30dc-11da-ac1b-00000e2511c8.html

Š ŠŠŠŠ

Š

Š

Comments